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Phương pháp chơi tài xỉu(www.84vng.com):Short selling is quickly turning dangerous

时间:3周前   阅读:7

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Steep slide: A pedestrian on a bridge in Beijing. The yuan has weakened and the country’s stocks have tumbled to the lowest level since the depths of the 2008 global financial crisis. — Bloomberg

BEIJING: Betting that Chinese stocks will extend the world’s worst run of losses just got a whole lot riskier.

A frenzied two-day rally in the nation’s shares – built on the flimsiest of speculation – gives a small taste of how epic price moves will be if or when authorities in Beijing give a clear signal on ending their zero-Covid policy.

With global fund managers holding the heaviest positions in cash in two decades, there is a mountain of dry powder waiting to buy.

It also means that for short sellers, who last week made US$4.4bil (RM21bil) of month-to-date mark-to-market profits over a couple days, the risks of getting wrong-footed are rising.

All it took to turn the tables this week were screenshots of unverified documents on social media that suggested officials were preparing to reopen the economy. That sent the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index surging more than 8% across Tuesday and Wednesday in the wildest swing globally.

“You just can’t be too bearish right now even if you want to be – look at the ferocity,” said Rob Mumford, an investment manager at GAM Hong Kong Ltd.

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“If the government signals properly on Covid then the move will be really fast. We’ll stay invested and can adjust our regional portfolios quite quickly.”

That signal looks some way off, with the National Health Commission issuing a statement late Wednesday that said China would “firmly adhere” to the general policy of zero-Covid.

US-listed Chinese stocks shrugged off the news, jumping as much as 4.5% before paring gains when Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell dashed hopes of an early pivot away from hawkish monetary policy.

GAM is underweight China but “not massively” as it looks to minimise losses and preserve capital while positioning for the market to move in either direction.

“Trading China is so nerve-wracking and we don’t want to be chewing our fingers every day,” he said. “We want to ensure we’re ok when the market is down and don’t get killed on the way up.”

Regardless of whether there is any truth in the social media posts, what is clear is that there is plenty of easily deployable money sitting just outside markets. According to Bank of America Corp’s most recent survey, fund managers globally hold 6.3% of their positions in cash, the highest proportion since 2001.

The ground has shifted quickly for options traders who snapped up hundreds of contracts last week allowing them to profit from further declines in the Hang Seng China Enterprises gauge.

The value of these derivatives dropped as much as 93% in a day during this week’s rally.

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